I like to end each year by asking you all for your predictions about the year ahead, and comparing them with my own. Before we do that, though, I think it’s only fair to check in on the predictions I made here last year about 2022. Overall, I think I did pretty well — which means I should probably try to make more daring predictions this year.
What I said: “Europe cements its position as the most important tech regulator in the world.”
reality: I do think Europe extended its lead here in 2022 — particularly over the United States, which didn’t manage to pass a single meaningful tech regulation despite one party having control of the executive and legislative branches. To give only the most recent example, Bloomberg reported this week that Apple is preparing to allow alternative app stores on its devices — a once-unthinkable move that is happening now only because the EU is requiring it. The sweeping Digital Markets Act took effect in November; the similarly comprehensive Digital Services Act was approved in July. California copied the United Kingdom’s Age-Appropriate Design Code; iPhones will swap out their Lightning ports for USB-C by 2024 because the European Parliament said so. The tech world that Americans live in is increasingly shaped in Europe, and there are no signs of that changing any time soon.
What I said: “Authoritarian shakedowns of platforms and their employees will accelerate.”
reality: In 2021, authorities raided Twitter’s offices and threatened employees of Google and Apple in Russia. Threats against platform employees in Russia absolutely did accelerate this year in Russia, thanks to its invasion of Ukraine and everything that came after. (Almost every tech company pulled out of the country as a result.) Aside from that, though, I saw fewer reportsd instances of government goons roughing up tech workers. Perhaps it happened more behind the scenes; if not, though, here was one where I was happy to be wrong.
What I said: “Drama Twitter is back.”
Reality: “Will Parag Agrawal be able to hold off activist shareholders and make the case for Twitter’s independence?” the most naive person in the world wrote here last December 18th. “Will the whole thing be sold off to Salesforce by this time next year?” asked a man who was getting closer to the truth and yet who had also never been more wrong. “And what will the company manage to ship in the meantime?” wondered someone who was completely missing the point. “Whatever the answer is, I expect things to get messier before they stabilize,” offered a reporter who, on this point at last, had finally gotten something right.
What I said: “The best thing you’ll be able to say about the metaverse is that it’s still under construction.”
reality: Against the odds, discussions of the metaverse ricocheted around the tech world all year — right up until the moment that Elon Musk bought Twitter, and all of that faded into the background. But I’d say I had this one basically right — particularly given that Apple’s headset got delayed into next year, and Meta’s Quest Pro got a mostly disappointing reception. There’s still plenty of talent and money going into augmented and virtual reality — though somewhat less of it, thanks to some steep layoffs at most of the companies involved this year — but in 2022 the metaverse was mostly a sideshow.
What I said: “Pro- and anti-crypto factions harden into place, setting up a long-term religious war over the potential and perils of the blockchain.”
reality: This did happen to an extent, as crypto skeptics came together to more effectively advance their project. (They also held their first conference.) And Web3 is Going Just Great, from the supremely talented Molly White, was arguably the best new publication of 2023. (I wrote about it here in February.)
But all-out war between pro- and anti-crypto forces never really materialized, because the skeptics were just… right about everything! NFT sales collapsed, TerraUSD collapsed, and then a bunch of related collapses led up to the biggest and most criminal swan dive of them all in Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX. There are still plenty of people around encouraging their fellow bag-holders not to worry, because true crypto has still never been tried, or something. But 2022 is the year all those people lost the benefit of the doubt.
The media will begin its divorce from Twitter. Elon Musk’s continued promotion of right-wing causes and personalities will push away more and more high-profile users who find themselves increasingly put off by his shock-jock antics and whim-based approach to content moderation. Alternative platforms like Mastodon, while smaller and less intuitive to use, offer a safe haven to more and more people — particularly journalists — looking for off-ramps. By the end of 2023, Twitter no longer sets the daily news agenda by default for the entire US press. This will come as an enormous relief to many publishers, who have long wished their reporters wouldn’t spend so much time tweeting anyway.